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Les taux de pauvreté ont baissé de façon remarquable au niveau mondial, mais d’importants défis subsistent néanmoins | Banque mondiale

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WASHINGTON, 17 avril 2013 — Le pourcentage d’individus ayant moins de 1,25 dollar par jour pour vivre a baissé de façon spectaculaire dans les pays en développement au cours des trois dernières décennies, tombant d’un niveau égal à la moitié de leurs habitants en 1981 à 21 % en 2010 — alors même que la population de ces pays augmentait dans le même temps de 59 %. Mais dans un nouveau rapport publié aujourd’hui à ce sujet, la Banque mondiale révèle qu’il y a encore 1,2 milliard de personnes en situation d’extrême pauvreté dans le monde, et qu’en dépit des progrès impressionnants affichés ces derniers temps, les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne en comptent encore plus du tiers.
« Nous avons fait de remarquables progrès pour ce qui est de réduire le nombre de ceux qui ont moins de 1,25 dollar par jour pour vivre dans le monde en développement, mais qu’il y ait encore 1,2 milliard de personnes en situation d’extrême pauvreté est un fait qui souille notre conscience collective », a déclaré à ce sujet le président du Groupe de la Banque mondiale, Jim Yong Kim. « Ce chiffre doit servir de cri de ralliement à la communauté internationale pour qu’elle passe à l’échelon supérieur dans la lutte contre la pauvreté. Notre propre travail d’analyse et de conseil peut contribuer à montrer la voie à suivre en vue de mettre fin à l’extrême pauvreté d’ici 2030, en montrant où se situent les pauvres et où la pauvreté est la plus prononcée. »
En s’appuyant sur les données figurant dans les derniers Indicateurs du développement dans le monde, l’étude publiée aujourd’hui (sous le titre The State of the Poor: Where are the Poor and Where are the Poorest?) montre que les indices numériques de pauvreté extrême ont baissé dans toutes les régions en développement entre 1981 et 2010, et il semble que l’Afrique subsaharienne ainsi que l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes aient franchi un cap à l’aube du nouveau millénaire. Dans la première de ces régions, en effet, le taux de pauvreté extrême qui avait progressé régulièrement (passant de 51 % en 1981 à 58 % en 1999) a baissé de 10 points de pourcentage entre 1999 et 2010, pour s’établir désormais à 48 % — soit un recul impressionnant de 17 % en dix ans. Et dans les pays d’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes, où il était resté stable aux alentours de 12 % dans les années 80 et 90, il a diminué de moitié entre 1999 et 2010, pour se situer à 6 % aujourd’hui.
Mais en dépit de la baisse de ses taux de pauvreté, l’Afrique subsaharienne est la seule région du monde a avoir vu le nombre de pauvres augmenter de façon régulière et prononcée entre 1981 et 2010. Aujourd’hui en effet, le nombre de ses habitants en situation d’extrême pauvreté représente plus du double de ce qu’il était il y a trois décennies : 414 millions de personnes, contre 205 millions. Il en résulte que cette région compte à présent plus du tiers de la population du monde en situation d’extrême pauvreté (au lieu de 11 % en 1981). Elle est suivie de l’Inde, qui en compte elle-même un tiers (contre 22 % en 1981), et de la Chine, avec 13 % (contre 43 % en 1981).

Hausse des revenus et baisse de l’écart de pauvreté dans la plupart des régions
Selon l’étude de la Banque, les revenus moyens des personnes en situation d’extrême pauvreté dans le monde ont progressé et convergent progressivement vers le seuil de 1,25 dollar par jour. Ils se situaient en effet à 0,87 dollar par habitant et par jour en 2010, contre 0,74 dollar seulement en 1981 (en dollars de 2005 à parité de pouvoir d’achat).
Mais cela n’est malheureusement pas le cas en Afrique subsaharienne. Entre 1981 et 2010, le niveau de revenu des personnes en situation d’extrême pauvreté y est en effet resté pour l’essentiel inchangé, aux alentours de la moitié du seuil de 1,25 dollar.
L’étude révèle par ailleurs que l’écart de pauvreté extrême se chiffrait en 2010 à 169 milliards de dollars au total (en parité de pouvoir d’achat de 2005), soit à peu près l’équivalent de 0,25 % du PIB mondial. Ce chiffre représente moins de la moitié de ce qu’il était en 1981 (362 milliards). Il convient de souligner que cette notion d’écart de pauvreté extrême reflète le niveau conceptuel de revenus additionnels directs dont aurait besoin un individu moyen en situation d’extrême pauvreté pour parvenir au seuil de 1,25 dollar par jour ; il ne représente pas le niveau d’aide nécessaire pour combler l’écart.
 « Nous avons fait de grands pas pour la réduction de la pauvreté, mais avec près d’un cinquième de la population mondiale encore en dessous du seuil de pauvreté, ce n’est pas assez », a estimé Kaushik Basu, premier vice-président et économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale« L’investissement à consentir en direction des pauvres exigera une action coordonnée de la Banque, de nos pays partenaires et de la communauté internationale du développement ; et on doit bien se rendre compte qu’il nécessitera un sacrifice de la part de ceux qui ont assez de chance pour être mieux lotis. » 

Article intégral sur le site de la Banque mondiale.

Inquiets pour leur avenir, les Français posent un regard sombre sur leur pays | Le Monde

LE MONDE | 03.12.2013 à 10h29 |

Par Jean-Baptiste de Montvalon

Râleurs – l’habitude qu’ils estiment partager le plus –, les Français portent un regard particulièrement sombre sur la société dans laquelle ils vivent ; et un jugement pour le moins pessimiste sur leur avenir. Telle est la confirmation apportée par une étude de l’institut CSA, réalisée par Internet du 14 au 21 novembre, auprès d’un échantillon de 2004 personnes, et rendue publique mardi 3 décembre.
Le diagnostic est sans appel : près des trois quarts des personnes interrogées estiment que la France est « en déclin » ; deux tiers approuvent l’idée selon laquelle on connaît « une crise sans précédent », dont « il sera difficile sortir sans réformer en profondeur le pays ». 58 % jugent que la mondialisation économique est « un danger » pour la France, contre 27 % qui y voient « une chance ».
77 % jugent que « les inégalités sociales en France se sont plutôt aggravées » au cours des dernières années. Plus d’un tiers disent être « en train de devenir pauvre » ; 55 % parmi ceux qui se rattachent aux classes populaires, 40 % pour les « classes moyennes modestes ».
LES FRANÇAIS NE SE RECONNAISSENT PAS DANS LES INSTITUTIONS
Si la création d’emplois et la croissance constituent les défis «les plus importants» aux yeux des Français, leur inquiétude n’est pas seulement d’ordre économique : les deux tiers des personnes interrogées estiment que « l’identité de la France est menacée ».
C’est peu dire que, dans ce contexte difficile, les Français se sentent désemparés. Ainsi ne se reconnaissent-ils pas dans la plupart des institutions censées les représenter. Les partis politiques (75 %), les syndicats (52 %), le Parlement (50 %), les médias (49 %) et la justice (43 %) évoquent majoritairement « quelque chose de négatif » pour les personnes interrogées. Alors que « voter aux élections » est cité comme « le moyen d’action le plus efficace pour faire entendre sa voix ou ses opinions », 88 % trouvent que les gouvernements, de gauche ou de droite,« ne se préoccupent pas des gens comme ».
Le repli sur un cercle proche va de pair : « la famille » est la valeur la plus appréciée. Et la méfiance vis-à-vis de l’autre est de mise : une majorité (54 %) juge qu’il y a « trop d’aides sociales » en France ; la « fraude aux aides sociales » vient en tête des sujets d’indignation, devant « la précarité de l’emploi » et « les incivilités ». « On ne se méfie pas seulement de ce qui est en haut, on se méfie aussi de celui qui est à côté », résume le président de CSA, Bernard Sananès.
DES MONDES QUI S’OPPOSENT
Si le diagnostic (fort sombre) est partagé, l’étude fait apparaître, comme le souligne M. Sananès, « plusieurs mondes qui s’opposent, se jalousent et cohabitent à peine ». 57 % des personnes interrogées estiment d’ailleurs que « ce qui divise les Français est plus fort que ce qui les rassemble ».
Cette dispersion a conduit CSA à établir cinq profils types et homogènes. Les deux groupes – l’un de gauche (22 %), l’autre de droite (25 %) – qui manifestent leur intégration selon différents critères (capital culturel plutôt élevé, niveau de vie assez confortable, vote massif à l’élection présidentielle) représentent moins de la moitié de l’échantillon.
Le groupe le plus important (31 %) constitue « la France amère ». Ses membres sont au coeur des classes moyennes, mais se situent pourtant dans les classes modestes ou populaires. Attachés à l’autorité, indignés par« l’assistanat », ils sont tentés par le Front national ou l’abstention. De moindre ampleur, les deux derniers groupes ne semblent pas plus en phase avec le « modèle » français : il s’agit, selon la terminologie choisie par CSA, de « la France en parallèle » (15 %) et de « la France absente » (7 %).

Article intégral sur le site du Monde.

350 milliards d’avoirs français sont dans les paradis fiscaux | Mediapart

25 NOVEMBRE 2013 |  PAR DAN ISRAEL

Dans un petit livre percutant, l’économiste Gabriel Zucman dresse l’état des lieux glaçant de la domination des paradis fiscaux, Suisse et Luxembourg en tête, sur l’économie mondiale. Et donne les pistes pour faire cesser ce scandale.

D’abord dresser froidement une carte, la plus juste possible. Proposer, ensuite, une feuille de route exigeante, pour bousculer les choses. Et en finir une fois pour toutes avec les paradis fiscaux. Ces objectifs, Gabriel Zucman les remplit haut la main dans son livre, La Richesse cachée des nations (Le Seuil-La République des idées, 128 pages, 11,80 euros). L’économiste, âgé de seulement 27 ans, passé par l’école d’économie de Paris sous la houlette de Thomas Piketty, aujourd’hui professeur à la prestigieuse London School of Economics et chercheur à l’université de Berkeley (Californie), est en train de s’imposer comme l’une des références dans l’étude des paradis fiscaux et de leurs conséquences néfastes pour l’économie mondiale.
Malgré toutes les annonces de réforme, toutes les promesses de transparence et de coopération, qui battent leur plein depuis quelques années (nous les détaillions ici), l’analyse de Gabriel Zucman est sans pitié : « Il n’y a jamais eu autant d’argent qu’en 2013 dans les paradis fiscaux, explique-t-il à Mediapart. Selon mes calculs, 8 % du patrimoine financier mondial des ménages y est logé, et échappe à tout impôt. Soit une fortune de 5 800 milliards d’euros, dont 350 milliards appartenant à des Français. C’est 25 % de plus qu’en avril 2009, quand le G20 de Londres avait annoncé la “fin du secret bancaire”. »
Sur la même période, le montant des fortunes gérées par la Suisse a augmenté de 14 %. Bref, « le nombre des super-riches explose et les paradis fiscaux se portent bien », explique l’économiste. Mais « peut-être se porteraient-ils encore mieux si rien n’avait été fait depuis 2009, il faut le garder en tête », reconnaît-il.
Le livre est un prolongement des premiers travaux de Zucman, qui datent de 2011. Selon lui, la fraude permise par le secret bancaire représente 130 milliards d’euros de perte d’impôts au niveau mondial, dont 17 milliards rien que pour la France. À court terme, il estime que l’Hexagone pourrait récupérer 10 milliards d’euros par an s’il luttait de façon efficace contre la fraude. Et sans l’évasion fiscale, la dette publique française ne s’élèverait pas à 95 % du PIB, mais à 70 %.
Ces chiffres, Zucman les a calculés lui-même, et c’est la principale originalité de ses travaux (toutes les données sont publiées sur son site). « Il existe peu de données incontestables que l’on peut exploiter sur ces sujets, et j’ai essayé de les traiter toutes », indique-t-il. Chiffres du FMI, balances des paiements nationales, bilans des banques, mais aussi statistiques trimestrielles émises par la Banque nationale suisse. Particulièrement précises, ces dernières n’avaient pourtant jamais été exploitées en ce sens. Son étude permet au jeune économiste d’éclairer un phénomène connu depuis longtemps, qui voit le total des actifs déclarés par tous les pays être largement inférieur au passif déclaré. Un trou de 4 800 milliards d’euros qu’il attribue à la place des paradis fiscaux dans les flux financiers.
Illustration, largement répétée par l’auteur au gré de sa (substantielle) tournée médiatique : si un Français possède une action Google via un compte non déclaré en Suisse, les États-Unis enregistrent à leur passif cette action, qui a été vendue hors de leur territoire. Mais la Suisse n’enregistrera aucun actif, car elle sait que le détenteur de l’action est français. La France ne le fera pas non plus, car elle ne connaît pas l’existence de cette action. D’où une incohérence comptable.
Le livre insiste fortement sur la place incontournable du trio Suisse – îles Vierges britanniques – Luxembourg dans l’organisation de l’évasion fiscale mondiale. Tout en haut de la pyramide, la Confédération helvétique, qui gère 1 800 milliards d’euros de fortunes étrangères, dont 1 000 milliards de fonds appartenant à des Européens. « C’est l’équivalent de 6 % du patrimoine financier des ménages de l’Union européenne, son plus haut niveau historique », souligne Gabriel Zucman. L’argent est déposé directement en Suisse ou dans les filiales de ses banques nationales à Hong Kong, Singapour, Jersey ou autres.

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